Author: Paul Zinn
As the 2009 postseason begins
to wind down, one thing is becoming clear to me – the Phillies are
not going anywhere. As far as I can tell, they will be a force to be
reckoned with in th e National League East for at least a few more years.
Add two other solid teams to
the mix in the Braves and Marlins, and it is clear the Mets need to
make changes. One of the areas they will need to address is the outfield.
As the offseason draws closer,
and we start to analyze what the Mets need to do to close the gap for
2010, the outfield is a fascinating part of it. For one, the Mets certainly
don’t have a bad outfield. But at the same time, it is one of the
areas where they can really make up ground prior to the 2010 season.
The reason for this is there is a gaping hole in leftfield that has to be filled, and plenty of talent to fill it with.
As we look at the outfield
for 2010, the one sure thing is
Carlos Beltran.
Beltran, a switch hitter who will be 32 when the 2010
season begins, had won three straight gold gloves coming into this year.
Despite an injury riddled 2009 season, there is no reason to believe
Beltran can’t come back and be very productive in 2010. Additionally,
he came back to finish the end of the 2009 season, which prompts further
confidence the injuries won’t carry over into next season.
Prior to an awful 2009 season, Beltran was a force, and in addition to his three gold gloves, offensively he averaged a .275 batting average, 29 home runs, 104.5 RBI and 20.75 stolen bases in 149 games played from 2005 through 2009.
There are certainly more questions
facing Beltran than in previous offseasons, but I think
most Mets fans are confident he’ll have a strong bounce back season.
The logical candidate to start
in rightfield is Jeff Francoeur, a right-handed hitter,
who will be only 26 when the 2010 season begins. Francoeur
hit the Major Leagues like a thunderbolt when he came up with the Atlanta
Braves in 2005, but his numbers started to deteriorate, particularly
in 2008 when he hit just .239 with 11 home runs and 71 RBIs.
Francoeur split
the 2009 season with the Braves and Mets, playing 82 games with Atlanta
(.250-5-35) and 75 with New York (.311-10-41). It seems that the move
to New York really rejuvenated Francoeur’s career (his
offense was one of the few bright spots during the second half of the
2009 season), and he is one of the acquisitions that Manager Jerry
Manual has consistently seemed very happy with.
Despite a lackluster debut
in the majors by Fernando Martinez, I would imagine he
is still in the long term plans for the Mets in rightfield. Martinez
got just 91 at bats in 2009 and hit .176 with one home run and eight
RBIs. He certainly didn’t appear Major League ready and hasn’t played
since July, but Francoeur
is certainly a serviceable way to fill the position at the moment.
This brings us to leftfield,
which is a gaping hole for the Mets, and an area where they desperately
need to improve. The current options are not good ones, and the Mets
will almost certainly have to travel a different route.
Gary Sheffield played 46 games in leftfield in 2009 and hit a serviceable .276 with 10 home runs and 41 RBIs, but I would imagine there is little to no chance of him being the Mets’ Opening Day leftfielder. He will be 41 in 2010, and while New York needs offense in leftfield, they can’t just forget about defense, as the Mets did when they played Daniel Murphy there for 27 games this season.
Angel Pagan is
another outfield option. He played 88 games in 2009 for the Mets, which
were predominantly in centerfield but he can play all three outfield
positions. A good fielder, Pagan is still not the offensive
threat the Mets need, hitting .306 with 6 home runs and 32 RBIs in 2009.
Manual has seemed pleased with his progress, and Pagan
has good speed, but I would think he is much more of a role player.
Jeremy Reed (50 games; .242-0-9 overall) and Cory Sullivan (38 games; .250-2-15 overall) both saw significant time in leftfield as well, but neither currently possesses the offensive firepower the Mets need, and Fernando Tatis isn’t a natural leftfielder, although he did see 26 games at the position in 2009.
This brings us to what the
Mets need, which is a sure thing in leftfield. If we look at the leftfielders
for the 2009 playoff teams, they are as follows: Phillies: Raul Ibanez:
.272-34-93; Cardinals: Matt Holiday: .313-24-109; Dodgers: Manny Ramirez:
.290-19-63 (including a 50-game suspension; Rockies: Seth Smith: .293-15-55;
Yankees: Johnny Damon: .282-24-82; Red Sox: Jason Bay: .267-36-119;
Twins: Delmon Young: .284-12-60; Angels: Juan Rivera: .287-25-88.
ESPN.com currently lists the
top three Mets leftfielders as Sheffield, Reed and
Tatis. All three are clearly a fire cry from the group above.
There are plenty of viable options, and they are superstars. The top three free agents available in the leftfield spot are Bay, Holliday and Carl Crawford of the Tampa Bay Rays. The first two’s offensive numbers are above, while Crawford hit .305 with five home runs and 68 RBI but also stole 60 bases. Imagine pairing him up with Jose Reyes at the top of the lineup. All three are in the primes of their careers.
Damon and Ramirez are other options but much older and don’t fit with the core that the Mets have built. New York shouldn’t just be looking to win next year but for a leftfielder that can help them win for another five years. Additionally Damon and Ramirez are Scott Boras’ clients. So is Holliday, which adds another variable to the picture.Lastly, the Rays have an option on Crawford. I would think Bay is the top option, with Holliday and Crawford, if the Rays don’t pick up the option, not far behind. All three would give them one of the best outfields in baseball.As a result, all three will also be highly-covets by a variety of teams. And the Mets could very well end up with none of the three.
Which brings us to the back
up plan: find a serviceable leftfielder, trade Francoeur,
or use him as a backup (albeit an expensive one – he earned $3,375,000
in 2009) and go after a rightfielder. The problem is the rightfield
market isn’t nearly as deep as the leftfield one.
Still, if we look at the rightfielders from the eight playoff teams, we see they are strong: Phillies: Jayson Werth: .268-36-99; Cardinals: Ryan Ludwick: .265-22-97; Rockies: Brad Hawpe: .285-23-86; Dodgers: Andre Ethier: .272-31-106; Yankees: Nick Swisher: .249-29-82; Red Sox: J.D. Drew: .279-24-68; Twins: Denard Span: .311-8-68 (23 steals); Angels: Bobby Abreu: .293-15-103 & Vladimir Guerrero: .295-15-50.
All of the playoff teams are strong at one of, if not both of the corner outfield spots. While Francoeur is a solid player, the Mets are strong at neither of the two.
Guerrero and Abreu are both free agents if New York wanted to explore this route, but the prior is 35 and the latter 36. Jermaine Dye (250-27-81) would be another option but is also 36.
It’s clear that if possible, the way to go is leftfield. To go the rightfield route would probably mean picking up an older player or trading for someone in his prime. And the Mets aren’t exactly well positioned to make that type of trade, nor are teams going to be willing to give up the type of players the Mets want.
Something must be done with the outfield, however. While serviceable, additions must be made. The success of the Mets infield in 2010 will be determined much more by in house players, namely how well David Wright and Jose Reyes are able to rebound.
In the outfield, the Mets must make a move. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are the two options the franchise has the best shot at obtaining. And to have a real shot at the National League East Crown, they must go after both.
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Posted by: top executive recruiters | November 11, 2011 at 08:42 PM